To Be Or Not To Be Wrong About Forecasting Hagupit

Leave a comment

December 10, 2014 by Centre Humanes

They could never have been more wrong forecasting last year’s Super Typhoon Haiyan / Yolanda to hit 35 km south of Tacloban City – but not Tacloban City as shown in the below severe weather alerts by two entities – a private weather company and the public sector weather forecasting agency of the Philippines. (emphases not ours)

When the Philippine President was asked how it (fuck ups) happened, he remaked: “The systems failed. What could I do?”

Some things never change. But it is fervently hoped and prayed that soon they will.

We are not through batting for the standing Geohazards and Environment / Climate Risks Mapping conference now and into the future.  And we will never get tired fighting for it.

While at this time, everyone deliberately wants to play deaf and dumb to the idea, some time soon, this will change.

Even if no one dies because of Super Typhoon Hagupit despite billions again lost in total damage and destruction resulting from the Category 5 typhoon, we foresee that changes will come and more pro-active, much better approaches to disasters will be put in place.

Even companies like Microsoft, Facebook, Google, Northrupp Grumann, Ratheon, a large number of giant Asian conglomerates will pitch in to help – if they are not already doing so.

The reason is because, a lot of institutions appear to be doing it all so wrong that one cannot help but not feel safe all the time with such faulty systems continuing their folly.

What is the reason for frequently stating the behavior of Hagupit keeps changing thus the weather agency will not give a definitive area for its path? What is the reason for keeping from the public some actual and real facts as if it will seriously hurt the feelings of the weather agency and the Department of Science and Technology officials?

If they get either irksome or sudden bright inputs from elsewhere, that is the only time when they declare this and that update about Hagupit or any other weather – climate event.  Otherwise, they would prefer to be silent and just passively issue their often inane weather forecasts every 6 hours.

Every storm has its own signature and all storm signatures show constant and uncontrollable change.  Unless those storms are the ones that conspiracy theorists call the handiwork of HAARP.  Thus there is no reason to keep stating the obvious.  If the foreign weather agencies provide a different track from PAGASA, there is no reason for the PAGASA to assassinate them by saying PAGASA has everything in its armory to defeat these international weather forecasting organizations because it has resources that the foreigners don’t have except their high technology capabilities.

PAGASA boasts about each climate event having a history.  And that’s part of their arsenal.  That is precisely why their own forecast for Haiyan-Yolanda is the same forecast for Hagupit. Its just history, baby.

That is not right.  And media has no moral ascendancy to keep putting down and degrading the effort of foreign forecasting entities because in the first place even if the media doesn’t want to acknowledge it, all the foreign forecasts about Hagupit have helped one way or another in warning the Philippine public.  The Philippines is being snubbed in international geohazards management forums.  Instead of coming together as a nation to pressure the international geohazards community of practice to give more respect to the Philippines’ own scientific community, these acts will just tend to push and drive away further the global geohazards community of practice and not give the Philippines a proper place in that community.

The Philippines is not even inputted by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization.  If you search that site, its database will yield zero hits about the Philippines. If you search Metro Manila, it wil give you Manila, The Philippines.  If you search for Eastern Visayas, the WMO website will redirect you to Bolivia. What the f__ is that. No the Philippines tragically suffered in the extremes from Yolanda. Let us take a walk back in time and check the actual record on how the forecasters actually did their best but failed to track Haiyan-Yolanda.

YOLANDA FATALITIES:  VICTIMS OF ERRORS

A Greek owned forecasting company Meteo Group that has a tie-up with the Aboitiz company that is also very closely idenitified with SMARTMATIC (widely known both in Metro Manila and in Cebu), predicted that Yolanda will hit 35 km south of Tacloban City to hit somesuch region, cluster of provinces, nothing solid in particular.

On the part of PAGASA it said that Haiyan-Yolanda will make landfall in Guiuan, Samar, linger in Visayas and go to Coron, Palawan.  It never said that Yolanda could kill more than 20,000 in Tacloban.

The forecast (excerpt only) of the alliance of METEO GROUP, UNIONBANK, ABOITIZ called Weather Foundation Philippines is shown below.

METEO GROUP-WEATHER FOUNDATION-ABOITIZ-UNIONBANK YOLANDA FORECAST

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS [CORRECTED]

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of STY Haiyan was located over the South Philippine Sea…about 975 km southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or 1,065 km east-southeast of Metro Cebu…currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 35 km/hr towards Leyte and Southern Samar Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 280 km/hr near the center with higher gusts.Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center…and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 230 kilometers from the center.  STY Haiyan remains asmall-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across.

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Haiyan is expected to move fast in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will make landfall over the northeastern shores of Leyte, about 35 km south of Tacloban City between 10-11 AM Friday and cross Northern Leyte passing over or very close to Ormoc City around noontime Friday. This Super Typhoon will start traversing the North Central part of the Visayas Friday afternoon, passing over the northern tip of Cebu, very close to Bogo City around 2 PM…across the northern tip of Panay (along Roxas City and Boracay) Friday evening between 6 PM to 8 PM…and will be over Coron, Palawan by early Saturday Morning (approx. 2 AM). By Saturday morning, Haiyan (Yolanda) will be over the West Philippine Sea moving away from the Philippines.

STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to slightly weaken within the next 24 hours as the system makes landfall over North Central Visayas…and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 230 km/hr by early Saturday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon…approaching the eastern coast of Leyte…about 315 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [2AM NOV 08: 10.3N 127.7E @ 270kph]

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the Calamian Group of Islands…weakens to a Category 4 Typhoon as it moves into the West Philippine Sea…about 30 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [2AM NOV 09: 12.2N 120.0E @ 230kph].

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of PAR…moving across the western part of the South China Sea…approaching the coast of Central Vietnam…weakens to Category 3…about 515 km southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [2AM NOV 10: 14.3N 112.6E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively…while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. 

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm’s parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

SMALL 15-KM ROUND EYE – over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL – where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall.Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS – where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Republic of Palau. OUTER RAINBANDS – where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION – from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)…with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Haiyan. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING – possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels…accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas beginning tonight through Friday morning. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).–>

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Nov 07, 2013Class/Name: STY Haiyan (31W) Location of Eye: Near 8.4º N Lat 133.4º E Lon Distance 1: 820 km ESE of Siargao Island Distance 2: 945 km SE of Borongan CityDistance 3: 975 km SE of Tacloban CityDistance 4: 1065 km ESE of Metro CebuDistance 5: 1065 km ESE of Tagbilaran CityMaxWinds (1-min avg): 280 kph near the centerPeak Wind Gusts: 335 kph Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5Present Movement: WNW @ 35 kphTowards: Leyte-Southern Samar AreaCPA [ETA] to Leyte: Friday Morning [between 10AM-12NN PhT]Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

PAGASA FORECAST ON YOLANDA

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

PAGASA Supertyphoon HAIYAN/YOLANDA Forecast Track – To HIT VISAYAS Region

PAGASA 24th Typhoon “YOLANDA” 3 Days Forecast Track making a Landfall at Guiuan, Eastern Samar and other parts of Visayas Region. PAGASA sighted Typhoon “HAIYAN/YOLANDA” (International Name/Local Name) inside PAR at 250 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar as of 11 pm November 7, 2013.

Previously, this weather disturbance was expected to enter PAR Thursday morning and will be called “YOLANDA” – the 24th typhoon to enter Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for 2013.It was forecasted to gain strength as it traverse PAR and high chance of becoming a supertyphoon (now already a supertyphoon – by other weather agencies) in the last few days.
PAGASA Supertyphoon HAIYAN/YOLANDA Forecast Track and Rain Volume

PAGASA “YOLANDA” MTSAT as of 11:30 pm, Nov. 7, 2013, eye is fast approaching the land mass of Visayas. Coordinates: 10.4N, 127.9E Signal #4 (>185 kph winds)

Luzon: Masbate

Visayas: Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte and Southern Leyte, Biliran province, extreme Northern Cebu, Bantayan Island, Capiz, Aklan, Northern Antique and Northern Iloilo

Mindanao: NONE  Signal #3 (101-185 kph winds)

Luzon: Ticao Island, Sorsogon, Romblon and Calamian Group of Island

Visayas: Rest of Antique, Rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, Northern Negros Occidental, Northern Negros Oriental, Bohol, Northern Cebu, Cebu City and Camotes Island

Mindanao: Siargao Island and Dinagat province Signal #2 (61-100 kph winds)

Luzon: Mindoro provinces, Marinduque, Albay, Extreme Northern Palawan and Burias Island

Visayas: Rest of Negros Occidental, Rest of Negros Oriental, Siquijor and Rest of Cebu

Mindanao: Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur and Agusan del Norte Signal #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon: Metro Manila, Bataan, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Southern Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Lubang Island, Rest of Northern Palawan and Puerto Princesa

Visayas: NONE

Mindanao: Misamis Oriental and Agusan del Sur

Supertyphoon HAIYAN/YOLANDA as seen by Japan Meteorological Agency MTSAT Nov. 8, 2013 battering Visayas region and affecting the whole country of Philippines. Forecast Track:(1) Landfall on Guiuan, Eastern Samar – Friday Morning(2) Vicinity of Coron, Palawan – Friday Evening(3) out of PAR – Saturday Evening

Strength: 225 kph near center

Gustiness: 260 kph

Possible Landfall: Guiuan E. Samar (Nov. 8, 2013, 5am), Leyte, Biliran, Northern Tip of Cebu, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Romblon, Semirara Island, Southern part of Mindoro and Busuanga.

Movement: West Northwest at 39 kph

Distance to Land: 250 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar

Rainfall Volume: 10-30 mm/hr (heavy – intense) within 600 km diameter

NOTE:  METEO Group-ABOITIZ kept apologizing during the pre-Yolanda period that only PAGASA has the final say on the forecast about Yolanda.

Upon scrutiny recently, it is somewhat noticeable that PAGASA is just relying upon METEO Group-ABOITIZ in some of its forecasting work instead of the other way around.

Some things badly need to be rationalized in the country’s forecasting programs and activities and soon.